According to @KobeissiLetter, Nvidia’s CFO stated during the Q1 FY2025 earnings call that the company estimated an $8 billion revenue loss in Q2 FY2025 after selling zero H20 chips to China, implying roughly 17% of quarterly revenue impacted, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X citing Nvidia’s Q1 FY2025 earnings call. For traders, a double-digit revenue hit to a major AI bellwether can weigh on broader risk assets, and crypto has shown higher co-movement with equities since 2020, so monitor BTC and ETH volatility alongside NVDA, source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto–equity correlations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Nvidia’s base-case for the next quarter assumes zero H20 chip sales to China, implying that models should anchor to no China H20 revenue near term (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, any improvement in US-China relations or any resumption of China-bound chip shipments would be an upside catalyst and could render NVDA shares cheap versus current expectations (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, the key trading variable is policy-driven export outcomes to China, and positioning should reflect zero H20 sales as the default while treating any positive China headlines as incremental upside risk to the guide and multiple (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, Nvidia is expected to sell about 1.5 million H20 chips to China in 2025, generating close to 25 billion dollars in revenue based on their estimates (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Aug 11, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the estimated cost tied to these sales is about 3.8 billion dollars, which is described as much less than 50 billion dollars over three years and framed as a massive move (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Aug 11, 2025). According to @KobeissiLetter, the figures imply an approximate gross margin near 85 percent and around 21.2 billion dollars in gross profit, with an implied average selling price near 16,700 dollars per chip and an implied cost near 2,500 dollars per chip, derived from The Kobeissi Letter estimates (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Aug 11, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, Nvidia has announced that the US government has indefinitely banned the sale of its H20 chips to China, resulting in a projected $5.5 billion impact on their Q1 earnings. Consequently, Nvidia's stock has dropped over 5% following this announcement. This development presents significant implications for traders, especially those holding or considering positions in Nvidia shares, as the ban could affect Nvidia's revenue streams and market performance in the immediate future.